Who are the favourites to reach the knockout stage of the World Cup?

We took the historical records, along with each team’s current Fifa ranking (November, 2017), to create a power index. Then we faced each team off against their group rivals and... well, draw your own conclusions as to how your team are likely to fare

Group A

The Russians best World Cup was a fourth place in England, 1966 (then competing as the Soviet Union), but it seems the numbers are not in their favour this time

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
This is the power accumulated through history by each national team. The cooler the box colour, the better the performance. Empty spaces indicate periods when the team ranked outside Fifa’s top 50

A CHANCE TO PROCEED
The combination of historical rankings and which country a team faces sets the probability each team has of staying alive. Here are the chances:

★ Best chance to move on

Let's take a look at the situation for the other groups. Remember, the cooler the box colour, the stronger the team, while empty spaces indicate a team dropping outside the top 50

Group B

The Europeans are the favourites here – Portugal rank third and Spain sixth in Fifa’s November monthly report. The Spanish team still have fresh memories of the 2010 World Cup when they took the cup home

Group C

Once again Europeans are the favourites. According to the historical records France have the most consistent team. As the most solid candidates we can expect them to march into the next round, but this is based on probability – anything is possible in soccer

Group D

The South Americans lead the charge in this group with Croatia in second place

Group E

The Brazilians are not just favourites for this group but they are also expected to lift the cup. Switzerland have the second best numbers, but Costa Rica were a surprise in the last World Cup leaving English and Italian dreams in tatters. Serbia are dark horses having developed excellently since officially joining Fifa on December 16, 2005, when they debuted at 47

Group F

Even a cursory glance at the records for the first three teams reveals how competitive this group will be. Perhaps this group will provide the most intense battles in the first round

Group G

Panama are one of the teams making a first World Cup appearance. Their inauguration will be against Belgium who qualified through Uefa undefeated

Group H

There’s very little in it, but the numbers would suggest the South American team have a slight edge. A good show should be guaranteed in every match for these teams

Working out the favourites by calculating the most accurate statistics for each team is just part of the fun for this world fest. All will be revealed next June, when the 32 teams fight it out, proving or confounding the numbers along the way