Rise of Asian-American voters in US elections
Asian-Americans are becoming a more influential voting group in the United States. In 2020, first-time Asian-American voters in key battleground states contributed to Joe Biden’s victory over then-president Donald Trump. Since then, their numbers have increased by 15 per cent, or about 2 million eligible voters. This November, approximately 15 million Asian-Americans are expected to represent about 6 per cent of all eligible voters in the US.
A survey* of Asian-American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) adults conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago in September 2024 showed that Vice-President Kamala Harris was viewed more favourably by AAPI registered voters than Republican candidate Trump. This survey marked the first of AAPI voters since 81-year-old Biden exited the 2024 race in July, paving the way for Harris to become the Democratic nominee.
Percentage of eligible voters who are Asian, by state (2022)
Hawaii is the only state where Asian-Americans make up a majority of the eligible voter population (55 per cent). The next-largest are California (17 per cent) and Nevada (11 per cent).
US eligible voters by race and ethnicity, projection (2024)
Intention to vote
In the US, voting is a right but not compulsory. Survey respondents were asked if they would vote in November.
2024 vote intention (before and after Harris entered the race)
Harris led Trump by 38 percentage points among Asian-American voters, expanding Biden’s 15-point lead by 23 percentage points since the spring.
Presidential vote choice
Asian-Americans typically lean Democratic. Survey respondents were asked who they would be inclined to vote for if the election was held at the time of the survey.
Candidate evaluation on China
Candidate representation on identity/policies
Survey respondents were asked which candidate best represented their background and culture. About half of Asian-American voters said Harris - who is black and of Indian descent - better represented them. About 1 in 10 said this about Trump.
*The 2024 AAPI Voter Survey was conducted between September 3-9, 2024. Number of respondents: 1,166. Asian-Americans make up 55 per cent of eligible voters in Hawaii. The states with the next-largest are California (17 per cent) and Nevada (11 per cent).
Associate Creative Director Marcelo Duhalde
Additional web development Joe Lo
Edited by Andrew London
Cover illutration by Davies Christian Surya
Sources: NORC at the University of Chicago, Pew Research Centre, South China Morning Post archives, Associated Press
